Showing posts with label Market Technical Reading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Market Technical Reading. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Mandarin Version : Market Technical Reading - Removing The 10-day SMA Will Spur More Buying... - 28/09/2010

Local Market Leads:
♦ Buoyed by the strong gain in the Wall Street on last Friday as well as the regional markets’ performance yesterday,
the local market finished sharply higher on Monday, reversing its recent consolidation.

Mandarin Version : Market Technical Reading - Removing The 10-day SMA Will Spur More Buying... - 28/09/2010

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Mandarin Version - Market Technical Reading :Sentiment Likely To Stay Lethargic Today…-07/09/2010

Local Market Leads:
♦ Local market extended its profit-taking leg for a second day on Monday, despite Asian stocks rallied on the betterthan- expected US jobs data on last Friday and the ringgit strengthened further to 3.1150 versus the US dollar.
♦ Also, most investors preferred to lock in profit ahead of the Hari Raya’s long weekend holidays later in the week.
♦ Upon closing, the FBM KLCI eased another 0.99 pt or 0.07% to settle at 1,434.68, but off its day low of 1,431.68 (-3.99 pts).
♦ Though the US markets were closed for the Labour Day on Monday, Asian indices rose on the US’ lesser-thanexpected jobs losses on Friday. Nikkei 225 rallied 2.05%, and Sensex soared 1.86%.
♦ But as lower liners failed to gather enough follow-through buying support, daily turnover contracted further to 744m shares, from last Friday’s 922m shares. Market breadth also turned negative for the first time in three trading days with 370 decliners outpacing 316 advancers.


Mandarin Version - Market Technical Reading : Sentiment Likely To Stay Lethargic Today…-07/09/2010

Monday, August 2, 2010

Mandarin Version - Market Technical Reading : The Bulls Are Ready To Take The Market Higher…-30/07/2010

Local Market Leads:
♦ Underpinned by firm bargain-buying support on selective heavyweights, the local market edged higher for the fifth straight day and hit a fresh year high on Thursday.
♦ Investors overlooked the overnight weakness in the US markets, while spreading their buying interest across the board, from fundamental stocks like Axiata and RHBCap (+12sen) to lower liners, such as TimeCom (+1.5sen), E&O (+6sen) and Scomi (+2sen).
♦ Axiata was the biggest index mover, as the share price surged 16sen to RM4.31 on strong turnover. Its strong gain has boosted the FBM KLCI to end at 1,358.41 with a 3.22 pts or 0.24% gain for the day.
♦ Turnover expanded further to 1.0bn shares, compared to Wednesday’s 847m shares. There were 386 advancers against 345 decliners.
♦ Elsewhere, most Asian markets ended positively following the strong early showing in the European markets.

Mandarin Version - Market Technical Reading : The Bulls Are Ready To Take The Market Higher…-30/07/2010

Monday, July 19, 2010

RHB Equity 360° - 19 July 2010 (O&G, Berjaya Retail; Technical: Genting, UEM Land) - 19/7/2010

Sector Update
- We cannot deny that there has been a stream of good news for the oil & gas sector that suggests that upstream activity is turning more positive. However, we believe that investors should view all news flow in perspective given there are still underlying economic issues that could pull sentiment down.
- The positive news flow include: 1) higher rig counts for Southeast Asia in June: 2) successful capping of BP’s Macondo well which implies that there is less likelihood of Gulf of Mexico assets flooding this region; and 3) potential for more new listing proposals in the sector. Conditions are also ripe for more corporate restructurings within the sector given valuations have fallen back despite positive long-term outlook.

RHB Equity 360° - 19 July 2010 (O&G, Berjaya Retail; Technical: Genting, UEM Land) - 19/7/2010

Thursday, July 15, 2010

RHB Equity 360° - 15 July 2010 (PLUS, TNB; Technical: IJM Corp)

Company Update
- We believe there is a strong likelihood that core expressways’ traffic volume could come in higher than our forecast, as: 1) FY12/10 traffic volume will be cushioned by the strong 9.8% growth registered in Jan-May 10; and 2) the strong 28.6% growth registered in passenger car sales in Jan-May 2010 will help boost PLUS’s traffic volume growth in the remaining months. To pre-empt the higher-than-expected traffic volume, we are raising our FY10 traffic volume growth assumption from 3% to 4%.

RHB Equity 360° - 15 July 2010 (PLUS, TNB; Technical: IJM Corp)

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

RHB Equity 360° - 14 July 2010 (Fajarbaru, Affin; Technical: Scomi Marine)

Top Story : Fajarbaru – Greenfield hotel project in Melaka a safe bet Outperform
Visit Note
- The greenfield hotel project in Melaka appears to be a safe bet given that its rooms will be sold to tour operators on a wholesale and long-term basis, and that the development also includes retail shops for sale.
- While the flow of small-scale public jobs has improved in recent months, Fajarbaru will rather stay conservative as far as job wins are concerned due to severe price undercutting, coupled with, we believe, the “lobbying” element that is making a quiet comeback to the market as a force to be reckoned with.
- Maintain Outperform, fair value is RM1.39.

RHB Equity 360° - 14 July 2010 (Fajarbaru, Affin; Technical: Scomi Marine)

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

RHB Equity 360° - 13 July 2010 (Plantation, Fajarbaru; Technical: TimedotCom)

Sector Update
- Malaysia’s CPO production rose in June 10 by a minimal 2.5% mom, while exports rose by a larger 5.5% mom. As a result, closing CPO stock levels fell to 1.45m tonnes in June (from 1.56m tonnes in May) and stock/usage ratio fell further to 7.8% (from 8.5% in May and versus the 7-year average of 9.1%). However, going forward, notwithstanding any effects of adverse weather, we expect this to potentially start reversing from next month onwards, as it approaches the peak seasonal production period.
- We noted a few main developments in the sector. Long-term positives are: 1) continued decline in stock/usage ratios for the 8 vegetable oils expected in 2011; 2) an increase in the biodiesel mandate in Argentina for 4Q2010 and 2011; and 3) a continuation of La NiƱa temperatures which could have a longerterm impact on production. Short-term negatives are: 1) the possibility of a reduction of Argentine export tax; 2) the USDA planting data report – which showed increased soybean acreage; and 3) the reduction in competitiveness of CPO vs soyoil.

RHB Equity 360° - 13 July 2010 (Plantation, Fajarbaru; Technical: TimedotCom)

Monday, July 12, 2010

RHB Equity 360° - 12 July 2010 (Motor, B-Toto, Mah Sing; Technical: Titan, Axiata)

Sector Update

Tan Chong : Fair value raised to RM6.16/share (previously RM5.26) - Outperform
UMW : Fair value reduced slightly to RM7.50 (previously RM7.52) - Outperform
MBM : Fair value increased to RM5.31 (previously RM5.04) - Outperform
Proton : Fair value is maintained at RM5.50 based on stripped down book value - Outperform

- We believe it is now the best time to invest in local motor stocks as the motor sector is currently into its second year of a new 3-year cycle that has started in 2009.

RHB Equity 360° - 12 July 2010 (Motor, B-Toto, Mah Sing; Technical: Titan, Axiata)

Friday, July 9, 2010

RHB Equity 360° - 9 July 2010 (Allianz, Banks, KNM, LPI; Technical: Magna Prima)

Company Update
- The rights to purchase Allianz ICPS will start trading on 9 Jul and will cease trading at 5pm 16 Jul. We estimate the rights will trade at an estimated price of 61 sen.
- Based on our estimates of 35% and the assumption that the ICPS are worth the same as the ordinary shares, together with the 1.2x dividend payout for the ICPS, we believe the ICPS should trade at a premium of 20% from the ordinary share, or at RM4.55 after neutralizing the yield impact. This implies that the rights could trade up to RM1.37.
- We are maintaining our earnings forecast while adjusting our fair value after taking into account: 1) the fully diluted EPS after adjusting for ICPS; 2) the rollover of our base valuation year to FY11. Our new fair value for Allianz is RM5.32

RHB Equity 360° - 9 July 2010 (Allianz, Banks, KNM, LPI; Technical: Magna Prima)

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

RHB Equity 360° - 6 July 2010 (Kossan, IOIC, Faber, Mah Sing; Technical: Supermax)

- Management is still positive on the demand for gloves and expects it to remain firm moving forward. Currently, Kossan’s average utilisation rate stands at approximately 90% and this has been rather consistent over the past few years despite the increase in production capacity.
- The capacity expansion at its new factory in Jalan Meru is ongoing, and upon completion, this new factory will house a total of 32 double-former lines. This factory currently houses 8 double-former lines, which will start commercial production in Sep’10. All-in, Kossan’s annual production capacity would increase by 20.8% from 12bn pieces currently to 14.5bn pieces by end-2010 and further by 3.5% in 2011 to 15bn pieces.

RHB Equity 360° - 6 July 2010 (Kossan, IOIC, Faber, Mah Sing; Technical: Supermax)

Monday, July 5, 2010

RHB Equity 360° - 5 July 2010 (Construction, Wah Seong, Lafarge; Technical: SP Setia, TNB)

Sector Update
- We are upgrading the construction sector to Overweight as we foresee construction stocks to generally outperform the market in 2H2010, buoyed by news flow, particularly, from: (1) The RM36bn KL MRT project; (2) The RM7bn Ampang and Kelana Jaya LRT line extension project; and (3) Federal land deals.
- While we believe the market is fully aware that certain negative elements are still lingering in the sector, we feel that it is likely to “brave” these negative elements and forge ahead with its move to position itself ahead of the curve, underpinned by the collective “buy-first-on-news” mentality.
- Our top “tactical” pick is Gamuda (Trading Buy, FV = RM3.85) while top “value” pick is Sunway (Outperform, FV = RM2.35).

RHB Equity 360° - 5 July 2010 (Construction, Wah Seong, Lafarge; Technical: SP Setia, TNB)

Thursday, July 1, 2010

RHB Equity 360° - 1 July 2010 (Strategy, Consumer, Banks, MRCB, Tanjong, Hiap Teck; Technical: Genting)

Top Story : Market Outlook & Strategy 2H2010 – Still a bumpy ride
Strategy Update

- Uncertainty persists in the global economy although we believe the risk to the global economy is a sharperthan-expected slowdown in the 2H and not a “double-dip”.
- For Malaysia, economic growth is envisaged to slow down to 4.8% yoy in the 2H, from an estimate of +8.8% in the 1H, as the “V-shape” export recovery normalised and demand from Europe and China softened. Consequently, corporate earnings growth is likely to have peaked. Market valuations, though not cheap, remain at reasonable levels.

RHB Equity 360° - 1 July 2010 (Strategy, Consumer, Banks, MRCB, Tanjong, Hiap Teck; Technical: Genting)

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

RHB Equity 360° - 30 June 2010 (Plantation, Dialog, Glomac, VS Industry; Technical: IRC)

Top Story : Plantations – No positive catalysts ahead Neutral (down from OW)
Sector Update

- We are downgrading our call on the plantation sector to Neutral (from overweight). We believe there are not many positive catalysts which would move CPO prices up in the near term, and therefore expect plantation share prices to remain lacklustre. Despite our now more cautious outlook for the sector for the short term, we maintain our CPO price forecasts of an average of RM2,500/tonne for 2010, RM2,700 for 2011 and RM2,500 for 2012.
- We are rolling forward our valuation targets to CY11 (from CY10). We believe earnings growth for the planters in the medium term are no longer exciting, while big premium valuations are no longer justified.
- For the Malaysian planters, we note that the premium valuations over their Singapore and Indonesia peers are back to excessive levels of 35-45%, versus the traditional 20-30% premium. For the big-caps like Sime Darby, IOIC and KLK, we now assign a target CY11 PE of 16x (from 18x CY10) for plantation earnings.
- For the mid-caps like Genting Plantations and IJMP, we now assign a target PE of 14.5x CY11 (from 16.5xCY10) and for small-caps like CBIP, we now assign a target PE of 12x CY11 (from 14x CY10). We also reduce our target PE for First Resources to 10x CY11 (from 11.5x CY11), which is based on an unchanged 30% discount to our revised target PER for the Malaysian mid-cap planters.
- No change to our Outperform calls on IOIC, KLK, First Resources and CBIP and our Underperform calls on Sime Darby, Genting Plantations and IJMP.

RHB Equity 360° - 30 June 2010 (Plantation, Dialog, Glomac, VS Industry; Technical: IRC)

Friday, June 18, 2010

Market Technical Reading : Negatively Biased View Maintained... - 18/6/2010

Local Market Leads:
♦ In the absence of interesting trading leads, the local market edged slightly higher for the eighth day on thin trading amid selective bargain-hunting on core bluechips on Thursday.
♦ At the close, the FBM KLCI added 1.34 pts or 0.10% to 1,304.47, led by mild gains in Sime (+4sen), HLBank (+15sen) and Maybank (+3sen).

Market Technical Reading : Negatively Biased View Maintained... - 18/6/2010

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Market Technical Reading - Technical Pullback Likely To Below 1,300... - 17/6/2010

♦ The FBM KLCI finally broke out from the 1,300 psychological threshold on Wednesday, as investors rushed in to scoop up core bluechips after an overnight Wall Street rally.
♦ The US DJIA rallied 213 pts on firm US manufacturing data and easing fear on the European debt crises. This lifted investors’ risk appetite on riskier assets, including stocks, commodities and currencies.

Market Technical Reading - Technical Pullback Likely To Below 1,300..- 17/6/2010

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Mandarin Version : Market Technical Reading - Cautious View On The FBM KLCI Stays...- 16/6/2010

Local Market Leads:
♦ Backed by firm buying support on key blue chips, the recent technical rebound on the local market entered into the sixth day on yesterday.
♦ Tuesday’s rebound was mainly driven by the external market sentiment. Asian bourses closed higher, despite the overnight US markets turned lower amid Moody’s Investors Service’s downgrade of Greek’s debt rating.

Mandarin Version : Market Technical Reading - Cautious View On The FBM KLCI Stays...- 16/6/2010

Market Technical Reading - Cautious View On The FBM KLCI Stays... - 16/6/2010

Local Market Leads:
♦ Backed by firm buying support on key blue chips, the recent technical rebound on the local market entered into the sixth day on yesterday.
♦ Tuesday’s rebound was mainly driven by the external market sentiment. Asian bourses closed higher, despite the overnight US markets turned lower amid Moody’s Investors Service’s downgrade of Greek’s debt rating.

Market Technical Reading - Cautious View On The FBM KLCI Stays...- 16/6/2010

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Market Technical Reading - Solid Obstacle of 1,300 To Stay... - 15/6/2010

Local Market Leads:
♦ Bursa Malaysia edged higher for a fifth trading day on quiet trading on Monday, underpinned by the improved overseas sentiment after the US markets scored a second day of gain on last Friday.
♦ At the close, the FBM KLCI rose another 2.49 pts or 0.19% to 1,297.16, as selective blue chips, like PBB (+12sen) and IOICorp (+3sen) attracted mild buying support.

Market Technical Reading - Solid Obstacle of 1,300 To Stay... - 15/6/2010

Monday, June 14, 2010

Mandarin Version - Hai-O Enterprise Berhad : Upside To Be Blocked By RM4.40 and The UTL…-14/06/2010

HaiO broke out from RM4.12 lately to spell more upside potential. HaiO reversed its uptrend after forming a “shooting star” candle in mid-Mar 2010. Selling pressure exaggerated further after it lost the RM4.40 key support level and the UTL in end-Apr. Coupled with a “dead cross” signal on the 10-day and 40-day SMAs, this sparked a steep sell off to RM3.26 low in end-May. Thereafter, a recovery leg kicked in, leading it back to above the 10-day and 40-day SMAs. Of late, it broke out from RM4.12 to spell more upside potential, before settling at RM4.21 on Friday with a
“doji” candle to mark uncertainties ahead.

Mandarin Version - Hai-O Enterprise Berhad : Upside To Be Blocked By RM4.40 and The UTL…-14/06/2010

Corporate Highlights... - 14/06/2010

♦ Lafarge (M) Cement
Visit Note : Better Times Ahead

♦ Adventa
Results Preview : Delay In Expansion Plan

♦ Market Technical Reading
Daily Trading Strategy : Trading Interest To Stay Dull...

♦ Hai-O Enterprise
Weekly Trading Idea : Upside To Be Blocked By RM4.40 and The UTL…

♦ Commodities & Currencies
Weekly Technical Viewpoint : Further Weakness In The US Dollar Is Seen This Week…

Corporate Highlights...-14/06/2010