♦ Market Outlook & Strategy
4Q2010 : Volatility As Economic Worries Persist
♦ Banking
Sector Update : Aug ‘10 System Data – Monthly Applications At Another High And Broad- Based
♦ Fajarbaru Builder Group
News Update : Lands RM62.4m Automotive Industrial Park Infrastructure Job
♦ Hiap Teck Venture
Results Note : FY07/10 Results Boosted By Better Margins
♦ Market Technical Reading
Daily Trading Strategy : Optimism On A Technical Rebound Persists...
Corporate Highlights...-01/10/2010
Showing posts with label Banking. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Banking. Show all posts
Friday, October 1, 2010
Banking Sector Update : Aug ‘10 System Data – Monthly Applications At Another High And Broad-Based-01/10/2010
Aug ‘10 banking system loan growth – up 11.8% yoy. Aug ’10 loan growth remained stable at +11.8% yoy vs. +11.9% yoy in Jul ’10. Overall system-wide loan growth was driven by the household segment (+13.4% yoy vs. Jul ’10: +13.2% yoy) with growth still broad-based, i.e. purchase of residential (+12.3% yoy) and non-residential (+19.1% yoy) properties, passenger cars (+8.5% yoy), personal use (+16.2% yoy) and credit cards (+13.6% yoy).
Banking Sector Update : Aug ‘10 System Data – Monthly Applications At Another High And Broad-Based-01/10/2010
Banking Sector Update : Aug ‘10 System Data – Monthly Applications At Another High And Broad-Based-01/10/2010
RHB Equity 360° (Strategy, Banks, Fajarbaru, Hiap Teck; Technical: Sime Darby) - 01/10/2010
Top Story : 4Q2010 Market Outlook And Strategy – Volatility as economic worries persist
Strategy Update
- The impending release of the 2011 Budget, detailed ETP blueprint, award of major infrastructure contracts and Federal land deals, and the Sarawak state elections would likely create news flow and spur investors’ interest on the construction and property sectors.
- Nevertheless, as valuations of the local bourse are no longer cheap, it is susceptible to any adverse developments in the external sector and cause volatility to the market.
- Although we are less sanguine on the near-term outlook, we believe there is still room for the market to trend higher in 2011. This is primarily predicated on the view that the global economic recovery is more sustainable than feared, which in turn implies sustained corporate earnings growth (+12.9% projected for
2011) that will continue to create new shareholders’ value for investors.
- Our end-2011 FBM KLCI target remains unchanged at 1,640, based on 15x mid-cycle 2012 earnings. This, however, will not be without volatility as the global economy enters into a period of slowing growth in an uneven phase of recovery.
- Whilst we acknowledge that the long-term economic picture remains positive for the equity market, the revival of a “double-dip” recession fear can have a disproportionate impact on the market in the foreseeable future. Under such circumstances, it may be timely for investors to do some top slicing on stocks where valuations have become rich in the run-up of the market. This would then provide more room for investors to accumulate fundamentally-robust stocks on weakness.
RHB Equity 360° (Strategy, Banks, Fajarbaru, Hiap Teck; Technical: Sime Darby)-01/10/2010
Strategy Update
- The impending release of the 2011 Budget, detailed ETP blueprint, award of major infrastructure contracts and Federal land deals, and the Sarawak state elections would likely create news flow and spur investors’ interest on the construction and property sectors.
- Nevertheless, as valuations of the local bourse are no longer cheap, it is susceptible to any adverse developments in the external sector and cause volatility to the market.
- Although we are less sanguine on the near-term outlook, we believe there is still room for the market to trend higher in 2011. This is primarily predicated on the view that the global economic recovery is more sustainable than feared, which in turn implies sustained corporate earnings growth (+12.9% projected for
2011) that will continue to create new shareholders’ value for investors.
- Our end-2011 FBM KLCI target remains unchanged at 1,640, based on 15x mid-cycle 2012 earnings. This, however, will not be without volatility as the global economy enters into a period of slowing growth in an uneven phase of recovery.
- Whilst we acknowledge that the long-term economic picture remains positive for the equity market, the revival of a “double-dip” recession fear can have a disproportionate impact on the market in the foreseeable future. Under such circumstances, it may be timely for investors to do some top slicing on stocks where valuations have become rich in the run-up of the market. This would then provide more room for investors to accumulate fundamentally-robust stocks on weakness.
RHB Equity 360° (Strategy, Banks, Fajarbaru, Hiap Teck; Technical: Sime Darby)-01/10/2010
Friday, September 24, 2010
Banking Sector Update : Looking Forward To Another Good Year - 24/09/2010
♦ Investors’ focus likely turning to 2011. 3QCY10 was, in our view,
generally a good quarter for the banking sector in terms of news flow. In
a nutshell, system-wide leading indicators remained positive despite three
Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) hikes by BNM thus far this year, the
reporting season generally surprised on the upside while the capital
requirements set for Basel III were not as onerous as feared.
Banking Sector Update : Looking Forward To Another Good Year - 24/09/2010
generally a good quarter for the banking sector in terms of news flow. In
a nutshell, system-wide leading indicators remained positive despite three
Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) hikes by BNM thus far this year, the
reporting season generally surprised on the upside while the capital
requirements set for Basel III were not as onerous as feared.
Banking Sector Update : Looking Forward To Another Good Year - 24/09/2010
RHB Equity 360° - 24 September 2010 (Banks, SP Setia; Technical: Berjaya Corp)
Sector Update
- Heading into 4QCY10, we believe investor’s focus would now shift to 2011 for the banking sector.
- Loan applications have remained healthy notwithstanding three OPR hikes thus far. We expect consumer spending to remain resilient next year on the back of high savings and rising consumerism and this would help support household loans. Fund raising activities by corporates could also pick up next year as key projects under the 10MP get implemented.
RHB Equity 360° - 24 September 2010 (Banks, SP Setia; Technical: Berjaya Corp)
- Heading into 4QCY10, we believe investor’s focus would now shift to 2011 for the banking sector.
- Loan applications have remained healthy notwithstanding three OPR hikes thus far. We expect consumer spending to remain resilient next year on the back of high savings and rising consumerism and this would help support household loans. Fund raising activities by corporates could also pick up next year as key projects under the 10MP get implemented.
RHB Equity 360° - 24 September 2010 (Banks, SP Setia; Technical: Berjaya Corp)
Monday, September 13, 2010
Banking Sector Update - Minimum Capital Ratios Set For Basel III But Not A Problem For Local Banks - 13/09/2010
♦ Minimum common equity requirement of 4.5% for Basel 3 ... The
oversight body of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
announced yesterday its package of reforms that will require banks to
hold minimum common equity of 4.5%. Meanwhile, the Tier 1 capital
requirement will increase to 6% from the current 4%. The phase in
arrangement kicks off from 1 Jan 2013 with full implementation by 1 Jan
2015.
Banking Sector Update - Minimum Capital Ratios Set For Basel III But Not A Problem For Local Banks - 13/09/...
oversight body of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
announced yesterday its package of reforms that will require banks to
hold minimum common equity of 4.5%. Meanwhile, the Tier 1 capital
requirement will increase to 6% from the current 4%. The phase in
arrangement kicks off from 1 Jan 2013 with full implementation by 1 Jan
2015.
Banking Sector Update - Minimum Capital Ratios Set For Basel III But Not A Problem For Local Banks - 13/09/...
Banking Sector Update - Stricter Credit Card Rules Ahead? - 13/09/2010
♦ Stricter credit card guidelines ahead? The weekend Edge reported
that BNM is looking at implementing measures that could effectively
tighten credit card spending.
Banking Sector Update - Stricter Credit Card Rules Ahead? - 13/09/2010
that BNM is looking at implementing measures that could effectively
tighten credit card spending.
Banking Sector Update - Stricter Credit Card Rules Ahead? - 13/09/2010
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Banking Sector Update : 2QCY10 Report Card – Lower Impairment Allowances For Loans Help Beat Forecasts - 02/09/2010
♦ Earnings momentum gathered steam … 2QCY10 earnings gathered
further momentum, with five of the eight banking stocks that we cover
reporting quarterly numbers that beat our as well as consensus
expectations. The most common variance was due to lower-thanexpected
impairment allowances for loans (Affin, AFG, AMMB and HL
Bank). Other causes for the stronger-than-expected results were: 1)
strong non-interest income contribution (AMMB); 2) overheads that were
well controlled (EON Cap); and 3) lower-than-expected effective tax rate
(HL Bank).
Banking Sector Update : 2QCY10 Report Card – Lower Impairment Allowances For Loans Help Beat Forecasts - 02...
further momentum, with five of the eight banking stocks that we cover
reporting quarterly numbers that beat our as well as consensus
expectations. The most common variance was due to lower-thanexpected
impairment allowances for loans (Affin, AFG, AMMB and HL
Bank). Other causes for the stronger-than-expected results were: 1)
strong non-interest income contribution (AMMB); 2) overheads that were
well controlled (EON Cap); and 3) lower-than-expected effective tax rate
(HL Bank).
Banking Sector Update : 2QCY10 Report Card – Lower Impairment Allowances For Loans Help Beat Forecasts - 02...
Monday, August 30, 2010
Corporate Highlights - 30/08/2010
♦ Banking
Sector Update : Jul ‘10 System Data – Monthly Applications Still Strong Despite OPR Hikes
♦ Property
Sector News Update : Downpayment Ratio To Be Raised?
Corporate Highlights - 30/08/2010
Sector Update : Jul ‘10 System Data – Monthly Applications Still Strong Despite OPR Hikes
♦ Property
Sector News Update : Downpayment Ratio To Be Raised?
Corporate Highlights - 30/08/2010
Banking Sector Update : Jul ‘10 System Data – Monthly Applications Still Strong Despite OPR Hikes - 30/08/2010
♦ Jul ‘10 banking system loan growth at 11.9% yoy. Jul ’10 loan growth moderated slightly to +11.9% yoy vs. +12.5% yoy in Jun ’10. This was largely due to lower disbursements during the month, especially to the business segment. The household segment saw outstanding loans accelerate further to +13.2% yoy (vs. Jun ’10: +12.9% yoy) with growth still broad-based.
Banking Sector Update : Jul ‘10 System Data – Monthly Applications Still Strong Despite OPR Hikes - 30/08/2010
Banking Sector Update : Jul ‘10 System Data – Monthly Applications Still Strong Despite OPR Hikes - 30/08/2010
RHB Equity 360° - 30 August 2010 (Banks, Property, PetGas, Ta Ann, Kinsteel, Perwaja, KLCCP; Technical: CIMB, K.Euro)
Sector Update
- Jul loan growth moderated slightly to +11.9% yoy (Jun: +12.5% yoy). This was largely due to lower disbursements during the month, especially to the business segment. The household segment saw outstanding loans accelerate further to +13.2% yoy (vs. Jun: +12.9% yoy) with growth still broad-based.
- Jul loan applications rose further to RM58.4bn (+13.6% yoy; +9.9% mom), a new high for the banking system. Absolute loan approvals, meanwhile, moderated to RM28.9bn (+7.9% yoy) vs. RM33.3bn (+24.2% yoy) in Jun. Jul’s statistics suggest that demand for loans has not been dampened by the three hikes in the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by BNM thus far.
RHB Equity 360° - 30 August 2010 (Banks, Property, PetGas, Ta Ann, Kinsteel, Perwaja, KLCCP; Technical: CIM...
- Jul loan growth moderated slightly to +11.9% yoy (Jun: +12.5% yoy). This was largely due to lower disbursements during the month, especially to the business segment. The household segment saw outstanding loans accelerate further to +13.2% yoy (vs. Jun: +12.9% yoy) with growth still broad-based.
- Jul loan applications rose further to RM58.4bn (+13.6% yoy; +9.9% mom), a new high for the banking system. Absolute loan approvals, meanwhile, moderated to RM28.9bn (+7.9% yoy) vs. RM33.3bn (+24.2% yoy) in Jun. Jul’s statistics suggest that demand for loans has not been dampened by the three hikes in the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by BNM thus far.
RHB Equity 360° - 30 August 2010 (Banks, Property, PetGas, Ta Ann, Kinsteel, Perwaja, KLCCP; Technical: CIM...
Monday, August 2, 2010
Banking Sector Update : Jun ‘10 System Data – YoY Loan Growth At A High - 02/08/2010
Jun ‘10 banking system loan growth unabated – up 12.5% yoy. According to BNM’s statistics, Jun ’10 loan growth stood at +12.5% yoy vs. +11.7% yoy in May ’10, the strongest monthly growth rate achieved thus far this year. Growth was largely broad-based with the household and business segments up +12.9% yoy (May ’10: +12.5% yoy) and +7.2% yoy (May ‘10: +6.1% yoy) respectively.
Banking Sector Update : Jun ‘10 System Data – YoY Loan Growth At A High - 02/08/2010
Banking Sector Update : Jun ‘10 System Data – YoY Loan Growth At A High - 02/08/2010
Monday, July 26, 2010
Corporate Highlights
♦ Banking
Sector Update : Revisiting FRS139 - Overweight
♦ MISC
Company Update : Divulging More Details On MMHE’s Listing
Corporate Highlights
Sector Update : Revisiting FRS139 - Overweight
♦ MISC
Company Update : Divulging More Details On MMHE’s Listing
Corporate Highlights
Banking Sector Update : Revisiting FRS139 - 26/07/2010
Singaporean banks adopted FRS39 back in 2005 and with the economy having gone through a full economic cycle during this period, we have, thus, turned to the recent experience of the banks there to serve as a rough guide on the potential impact ahead of FRS139 on the local banks.
Banking Sector Update : Revisiting FRS139 - 26/07/2010
Banking Sector Update : Revisiting FRS139 - 26/07/2010
Corporate Highlights - 26/7/2010
♦ Banking
Sector Update : Revisiting FRS139 - Overweight
♦ MISC
Company Update : Divulging More Details On MMHE’s Listing
Corporate Highlights - 26/7/2010
Sector Update : Revisiting FRS139 - Overweight
♦ MISC
Company Update : Divulging More Details On MMHE’s Listing
Corporate Highlights - 26/7/2010
RHB Equity 360° - 26 July 2010 (Banks, MISC; Technical: MMC, Scomi Marine)
Sector Update
- We have looked at the recent experience of the Singaporean banks to serve as a rough guide on the potential impact ahead of FRS139 on the local banks.
- The experience there suggest that the current loan loss model is procyclical, which would help lend support to our view that credit cost should remain relatively benign if economic conditions hold up.
RHB Equity 360° - 26 July 2010 (Banks, MISC; Technical: MMC, Scomi Marine)
- We have looked at the recent experience of the Singaporean banks to serve as a rough guide on the potential impact ahead of FRS139 on the local banks.
- The experience there suggest that the current loan loss model is procyclical, which would help lend support to our view that credit cost should remain relatively benign if economic conditions hold up.
RHB Equity 360° - 26 July 2010 (Banks, MISC; Technical: MMC, Scomi Marine)
Friday, July 9, 2010
Banking - BNM Raises OPR By 25bps To 2.75% - 9/7/2010
Overnight Policy Rate raised by another 25bps to 2.75%. BNM yesterday raised the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by another 25bps to 2.75% as part of its move to normalise interest rates. While we had expected another 25bps hike in 2H2010, we had anticipated this to take place at the Sep policy meeting. BNM has now raised the OPR by a total of 75bps this year following earlier OPR hikes in Mar and May (each time by 25bps) and with that, we think BNM is likely to keep the OPR unchanged for the rest of the year.
Banking - BNM Raises OPR By 25bps To 2.75% - 9/7/2010
Banking - BNM Raises OPR By 25bps To 2.75% - 9/7/2010
RHB Equity 360° - 9 July 2010 (Allianz, Banks, KNM, LPI; Technical: Magna Prima)
Company Update
- The rights to purchase Allianz ICPS will start trading on 9 Jul and will cease trading at 5pm 16 Jul. We estimate the rights will trade at an estimated price of 61 sen.
- Based on our estimates of 35% and the assumption that the ICPS are worth the same as the ordinary shares, together with the 1.2x dividend payout for the ICPS, we believe the ICPS should trade at a premium of 20% from the ordinary share, or at RM4.55 after neutralizing the yield impact. This implies that the rights could trade up to RM1.37.
- We are maintaining our earnings forecast while adjusting our fair value after taking into account: 1) the fully diluted EPS after adjusting for ICPS; 2) the rollover of our base valuation year to FY11. Our new fair value for Allianz is RM5.32
RHB Equity 360° - 9 July 2010 (Allianz, Banks, KNM, LPI; Technical: Magna Prima)
- The rights to purchase Allianz ICPS will start trading on 9 Jul and will cease trading at 5pm 16 Jul. We estimate the rights will trade at an estimated price of 61 sen.
- Based on our estimates of 35% and the assumption that the ICPS are worth the same as the ordinary shares, together with the 1.2x dividend payout for the ICPS, we believe the ICPS should trade at a premium of 20% from the ordinary share, or at RM4.55 after neutralizing the yield impact. This implies that the rights could trade up to RM1.37.
- We are maintaining our earnings forecast while adjusting our fair value after taking into account: 1) the fully diluted EPS after adjusting for ICPS; 2) the rollover of our base valuation year to FY11. Our new fair value for Allianz is RM5.32
RHB Equity 360° - 9 July 2010 (Allianz, Banks, KNM, LPI; Technical: Magna Prima)
Thursday, July 8, 2010
RHB Equity 360° : 8 July 2010 (QL, Banks, Kencana; Technical: Proton) - 08/07/2010
Top Story : QL Resources – Pathway paved for QL’s next growth phase Outperform
Visit Note
- 74.5%-owned plantation in Indonesia is expected to start contributing more meaningfully to the plantation division (>60% of plantation earnings) by FY13 arising from the maturing age profile of its plants and milling profits from CPO mill in Indonesia.
- QL targets to enlarge its eggs product to 4.0m eggs/day (+60%) by FY13. This would come from its expansion plans in Malaysia (+0.5m (+20%) in FY11), Indonesia (+0.5m (+20%) in FY12) and Vietnam (+0.5m (+20%) by end-FY12).
- Started construction of surimi plant in Indonesia which has 2 lines with a total initial capacity of 5,000mt p.a.. Earnings contribution from this new plant is expected to come in by early-FY12.
- Our FY11-13 earnings forecasts have been reduced by 0.1-5.0% p.a. after: 1) tweaking our earnings model; 2) assuming earnings for Indonesia and Vietnam operations only come in by mid- to end-FY12 instead of early-FY12 previously; and 3) increasing our capex assumptions.
- Our fair value has been increased to RM4.90 (from RM4.60) based on higher CY11 PER target of 14.5x (from 13x), to be in line with the consumer sector target PER.
RHB Equity 360° : 8 July 2010 (QL, Banks, Kencana; Technical: Proton) - 08/07/2010
Visit Note
- 74.5%-owned plantation in Indonesia is expected to start contributing more meaningfully to the plantation division (>60% of plantation earnings) by FY13 arising from the maturing age profile of its plants and milling profits from CPO mill in Indonesia.
- QL targets to enlarge its eggs product to 4.0m eggs/day (+60%) by FY13. This would come from its expansion plans in Malaysia (+0.5m (+20%) in FY11), Indonesia (+0.5m (+20%) in FY12) and Vietnam (+0.5m (+20%) by end-FY12).
- Started construction of surimi plant in Indonesia which has 2 lines with a total initial capacity of 5,000mt p.a.. Earnings contribution from this new plant is expected to come in by early-FY12.
- Our FY11-13 earnings forecasts have been reduced by 0.1-5.0% p.a. after: 1) tweaking our earnings model; 2) assuming earnings for Indonesia and Vietnam operations only come in by mid- to end-FY12 instead of early-FY12 previously; and 3) increasing our capex assumptions.
- Our fair value has been increased to RM4.90 (from RM4.60) based on higher CY11 PER target of 14.5x (from 13x), to be in line with the consumer sector target PER.
RHB Equity 360° : 8 July 2010 (QL, Banks, Kencana; Technical: Proton) - 08/07/2010
Corporate Highlights...-08/07/2010
QL Resources
Visit Note : Pathway Paved For QL’s Next Growth Phase
Banking
Sector News Update : Ball Back In HL Bank’s Court?
Kencana Petroleum
News Update : Newfield Contract
Market Technical Reading
Daily Trading Strategy : Surpassing the 10-day SMA Will Confirm A Technical Rebound...
Banking Sector Update : Ball Back In HL Bank’s Court? - 08/07/2010
Visit Note : Pathway Paved For QL’s Next Growth Phase
Banking
Sector News Update : Ball Back In HL Bank’s Court?
Kencana Petroleum
News Update : Newfield Contract
Market Technical Reading
Daily Trading Strategy : Surpassing the 10-day SMA Will Confirm A Technical Rebound...
Banking Sector Update : Ball Back In HL Bank’s Court? - 08/07/2010