Tracking The World Economy ...
US Leading Index Points To A Sustained Increase In Economic Activities In 2H 2010
The US Conference Board’s index of leading indicators, which provides early signal on the direction of the economy over the next three to six months, picked up to 1.4% mom in March, from +0.4% in February. This was the strongest increase in 10 months, indicating that the US economy will keep expanding into 2H 2010. The stronger growth was reflected in a pick-up in average workweek, consumer goods orders, the pace of deliveries, building permits and stock prices as well as a smaller decline in consumer expectations. These were, however, offset partially by declines in orders of non-defence capital goods and money supply. The leading index’s six-month annual rate of change rebounded to +10.6% in March, from +9.9% in February and +10.4% in January. This suggests that the US economy will likely sustain its expansion into 2H 2010. Meanwhile, consensus expects US real GDP to expand by an annualised rate of 3.0% in 1Q 2010, before easing to 2.8-2.85% for the rest of the year in the 2Q and compared with +5.6% in the 4Q. For the full-year, real GDP is projected to grow by 3.0% in 2010 before easing to +2.95% in 2011 and compared with -2.4% in 2009.
Tracking The World Economy ... - 20/04/2010
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