RHB Equity 360° - 01/03/2010 (Carlsberg, Sime, Genting, Genting Msia, Maxis, Ann Joo, AirAsia, Affin, IKML, Suncity, KPJ, Faber, Kossan, MCIL, etc.)

Top Story : Carlsberg – Hello Singapore!
Outperform

Briefing Note

• In FY09, Carlsberg was hit with higher raw material costs, flattish industry volumes and an increase in offtrade consumption due to value pressure, but gained +1% market share.
• Imported premium beer segment grew 56% in FY09 and has received favourable feedback from on-trade consumers, which could translate to gaining more pub contracts in Klang Valley and reduce dominance of Guinness and Heineken. Four new brands in imported premium beer segment to be introduced in FY10.
• Total TIV expected to recover by 2% in FY10 (vs. our assumption of 1%) driven by improving consumer sentiment, later timing of CNY festive season and World Cup celebration. New contracts for raw material prices locked in at lower prices in Jan and margins expected to return to more normal levels. Concerns remain on value pressures from customers as they become more used to lower priced beer.
• No changes to our forecasts. Maintain fair value of RM5.90 based on unchanged WACC of 9.2%.

RHB Equity 360° -01/03/2010 (Carlsberg, Sime, Genting, Genting Msia, Maxis, Ann Joo, AirAsia, Affin, IKML, ...