Top Story : Shifting Trends – Seeking shelter in domestic plays
Market Update
♦ The FBM KLCI has erased all its gains and more during the first five months of 2010 since turning downwards on 13 May. We expect the market to remain volatile, with the risk on the downside.
♦ We have used historical valuations and market data in order to find possible fundamental support levels for the FBM KLCI:
1) Average one-year forward PER for FBM KLCI stocks since 2000 is estimated to be around 15x, and one standard deviation (SD) below the mean is estimated to be around 13.3x, which is coincidentally the same valuation at the next technical support of 1,154 for the FBM KLCI; and
2) Annual returns for the FBM KLCI over the last 32 years have averaged around 13% and 1SD below the mean would imply a pullback of around -17.6%. However, we note that a 1SD fall has only occurred seven times over the last 32 years. As it stands, the FBM KLCI has already fallen by 7.2% from the peak this year.
♦ Having painted a near-term bearish picture for the market, we highlight that the correction is driven more by external factors relating to fears over global macroeconomic conditions especially in the EU. We acknowledge that these concerns could result in some of our earnings forecasts coming under pressure.
Therefore, in our view, companies that have little or hedged exposure to overseas markets or imported costs are likely to be more resilient. These domestic plays include Maxis, TNB, PLUS, Allianz, AEON, KFC, KPJ and B-Toto.
RHB Equity 360°(Market, Consumer, Steel, Kencana, Sunway, MPI, HSL, KFC, Kinsteel, Perwaja, KNM;Technical: ...
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